Math and Magic Coins
If you want to be a successful bettor you can not ignore the math.
This is the biggest mistake which you can make. I came to the betting world from playing bridge, which is a very mathematical game. All great bridge players know probability very well and they always try to play for the best chances. This is the only way to be a winner long term, they do not play against the math. When I discovered the betting world I was amazed how similar these two worlds are. Let’s look closer at the general math.
Heads or tails?
Let’s play. I offer you 1,85 odds, you chose. At the first look, it might be an attractive proposition, you can earn 85% in one try. Of course, this is only an illusion because I will be the winner long term. You have a 50% chance for a success in each try and odds which I offer are too low to make you long term profit. Let’s say you made 10 tries and put 100 units each time, the score was 5 heads and 5 tails, you just lost 75 units:
(5*85) – (5*100) = -75 (-7,5%)
A magic coin.
Let’s imagine you have a magic coin. If you throw this coin 10 times, the score will be 6 heads and 4 tails each time. I guess it sounds attractive. You offer me a game with the same odds 1,85 and we agree you throw a coin 10 times and chose heads each time. It would be a great deal for you. Same stake 100 units:
(6*85) – (4*100) = + 110 (+11%)
How often?
This is the question which you should ask yourself each time making putting a bet. Remember the main rule in betting:
probability x odds > 1 = future profit
Let’s say you put a bet with odds 1,8. How often you have to be right here to be break even (A) or to earn 8% (B) in the distance?
You have to do a simple math: profit in the distance / odds = probability you need
(A) 1 / 1,8 = 55,55 %
(B) 1,08 / 1,8 = 60%
Where are the magic coins ?
Well, this is a key question. Traders, who work for sportsbooks try to set odds which will be correct, refer to probability and they cut them down by putting a margin. So in theory, if they were correct each time we could not make a consistent profit (we would lose this margin). But traders are only people and they make mistakes like all of us. From my experience, I estimate that traders make mistakes about 12-15% of the time. Is it a large number? Well, if you play only one league which has 15 matches in a week you will probably not have many opportunities for correct bets, but if you monitor more leagues you will have more earning possibilities in the distance.
The second part of bettor’s income will come from the mistakes of other bettors.
Other bettors, by placing their bets, change the lines and odds. If they are wrong they will make a value position for your bet. That’s why successful bettors also observe the lines and odds movements and they take the action if they estimate that they have value.
Remember betting is a long term investment, this is not a black-red roulette. If you want to be successful you have to work hard and be patient. You have to make your homework, gain experience and knowledge and if you do your job correctly you will find many magic coins.